The day of the big erection is nearly upon us. Hit men are out practicing and polishing their weapons, Samlor drivers are making an extra buck or two blasting neighborhoods with lies, more lies and promises that won’t be kept and the Big Boys are jostling for position with ever increasingly ridiculous stunts. So what does this all mean for us, the innocent bystanders. To answer this we have to unfortunately take a closer look at who’s in the line up for the most likely winner of the Big Erection.
Firstly, we have the Power Peoples Party, because they are the defacto remains of the results of the last erection - so consider them as a spent chubby covered in post coital slime - headed up by the Nominee. The main reason he won’t get erected - he spits too much.
Secondly, we have the Demure Cats - now these guys have a problem. Everyone knows that they’re useless, including them, but via a coup and a friendly court they’re in play; problem is, these guys just cannot keep it up - if they achieve to get the erection, it will fail before they’ve managed to f*ck anything up.
Thirdly, we have the Road Builders - these guys are a FullCrumb play, they’ll tip the balance and expect a shit load of tarmac to get laid all through next year.
Fourthly and the last of the significants is For the Dirt Party. These guys are making no bones about why they’re in - they’re in it for the money pure and simple - too simple unfortunately for anyone to believe them.
To figure out the winner of this, it’s easier to look at who cannot lose - yup. So without going into too many details ‘coz i like it here, expect 2, 3 and 4 to all get a piece. Chaos, a split personality for the Country, a crappy economy all very likely for the next 9 - 15 months. And what does this mean for us - more fun at cheaper or prevailing rates!!! yep. That’s the good news.
Interesting stuff. JD - get in here. I know u love when we start to get into politics.
I have been hearing 2 different schools of thought. The few guys coming to the pub who are in the know to even discuss politics keep saying the Dems are going to take it and things will start to really happen around Thailand. I am not so sure.
Some other people I know who actually dine with the Dems say that the Dems already know they will not get the majority but that the PPP will. Then the the PPP will work to clear the runway for a Thaksin return. If this happens then it will be interesting to see what the coup makers will do.
I guess never a dull moment around here.
View all comments by smitty
My bet: 23 Dec PPP wins >>> 21 June 2008 >>> army re-takes control of the country in a bloodless coup, declares marshall law, suspends the constitution and asks for royal blessing of their actions declaring that a new, more democratic constitution will be implemented on 10 dec 2009.
If anyone thinks I’m just re-playing the events of 2006; read Thai history (even just the summary version) from 1932 to 2007. These are people who don’t really think democracy works but can’t bring themselves to be ruled by army generals all the time.
The series of constitution >> election >> coup >> constitution >> election >> coup is a set pattern, broken only when the army occasionally overthrows the civilian government it installed (for misbehaving) without waiting for a new constitution.
View all comments by werewolf
Can’t wait until the PPP sets off on their social order crusade in 2008 to drum up support from the conservative base.
I just love 1am closing times and piss tests when I go out.
View all comments by Orion
ww - interesting. Obviously none of us here can really talk openly and candidly about all this but I get your point. When u say people I am not sure in reference to who. I actually think the people of thailand want democracy but it is tough for the people to balance this against the backdrop of the major influence of Thailand. I don’t think another coup will happen because whoever masterminds it won’t have a valid reason for it this time around. They said they needed to get rid of Thaksin and restore democracy. We all know that democracy is not why they did it but it sounds good. This time there is no Thaskin to get rid of and well - democracy supposedly will have voted this crew in so what will they say?
Interesting stuff indeed. This whole balance thing will eventually have to come to a head.
View all comments by smitty
@smitty: The PPP has said openly (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IK16Ae01.html) that if they are elected they will re-instate all of the sudspended TRT members, invite Thaksin to return to the country (where he would have his day in court) and amend the new constitution.
Would Sonthi & the rest need more evidence that the new government can’t be trusted to look after the interests of the Thai People?
The army has a history of spouting motherhood statements to justify a coup (we have to get rid of the democratically elected but corrupt Thaksin) that usually have little connection to the real reasons.
Essentially, in the news we see the broad strokes of a power struggle that goes on between the army and ‘everybody else’. The army drives the political situation in Thailand over the long haul, taking back power anytime they feel it slipping away.
I’m no political analyst in Thailand… that’s just my 2-cents-worth-over-a-beer opinion. In years past I was a keen political follower in whatever country I lived in, and could speak intelligently about the situation there. In Thailand I barely understand.
View all comments by werewolf
@smitty - it’s going to be real close. The new rules for voting have decreased PPP’s chances but only by a bit. This is where Chart Thai and Peua PaenDin come in. With their “father” figures they can and probably will tip the balance. My bet is that PPP end up with slightly more seats than the Dems, but cannot form a Government.
The, not just implied, but implicit threat in the PPP being “returned” is that there will definitely be another coup. Another coup would have serious consequences, much more serious than the last, from a global point of view - this will cost billions - and as such is likely to sway the big money to come in behind the anti-Thaksin groups. One thing to keep an eye on is who controls the current checks and balances and with Gen. Sonthi appointed as the man in charge of anti-vote buying, I wouldn’t rule out a few pre-emptive strikes along the way. Samak is already under criminal charges for the fire truck deal not too much of stretch of the imagination to see things really hot up in the next three weeks.
Either way we are going to be faced with real polarization primarily because there is serious financial polarization and that is not changing.
View all comments by Psi100th
My feeling is Isan is intentionally kept poor so Bangkok hi-so’s can benefit from cheap labour, cheap products, cheap votes and cheap women. There are no benefits that I can see for the political ruling class to improve the lot of people in Isan. Keep them under educated with low expectations and we can buy whatever we want.
Yet it is these very same people who will put PPP in the majority in a coalition government. Can’t see how this cycle will ever be broken.
View all comments by proky
Uh, Proky, it would make you look ever so much more intelligent if you actually took the trouble to learn something about Thai politics before you started pushing your opinions. You have everything exactly backwards.
‘Bangkok’s hi-so’s,’ as you call them, are Democrats to a man. The Democrats won’t get 20% of the votes in Isaan. That’s PPP territory. And the major rap on the PPP by the so-called ‘hi-so’s’is that it pushes half-witted populist programs that pump money into Isaan. Whether the programs of the PPP make any sense in the long term, of course, is quite another question. But what cannot be questioned is that is PPP is the only party the rural poor have and that is exactly why the royalists and the army want to destroy the PPP and replace them with a weak government headed by the Democrats.
View all comments by Old Asia Hand
WEREWOLF –
“My bet: 23 Dec PPP wins >>> 21 June 2008 >>> army re-takes control of the country in a bloodless coup, declares marshall law, suspends the constitution and asks for royal blessing of their actions declaring that a new, more democratic constitution will be implemented on 10 dec 2009…..”
I am embarrassed to the bottom of my soul to agree with Werewolf on anything, but in this case he’s dead on. My only quibble is this: why would the military wait six months? Nah, my money is on a date in February or March, but I’ll go double or nothing that this time the toy soldiers completely fuck it up and the new coup turns into total confusion for everyone.
View all comments by Old Asia Hand
@ww Like, Ok, now I’m confused. Are we talkin’ about some mis-managed rich man’s piggy bank type country or are we talkin’ about the USA?
Inquiring minds want to know?
Anyone know if voter turnout is better here?
View all comments by Thongsuk
My observation.
Have any of the candidates been photographed with W?
If so, a la John Howard and Tony Blair, they’re done.
View all comments by Jack Dawson
What I want to know is who in this country really knows whats going on. I was talking to a friend the other day who told me that before a brand new condo or shopping mall is designed, invested in and built the Thai feasability and profitibility tests involve a few guys drinking black in a massage parlour and saying “This should make us some money”
My point is the ruling party in America polls people to find out what they think, England devises stratagies in the UK for which direction the country should be going and France is constantly looking out for how they can sell their sh!test wines to the rest of us. My point is this: These guys (ie politicians, power brokers) have no clue whats going in terms of the big picture and running the country its just one big mongolian cluster f@ck. The definition of politics here is “Getting into a postion of power showing off to all your mates and lining your pockets, People? Country? your talking to the wrong person now step away from the Mercedes”
View all comments by FalangRakThai
@OAH: “I am embarrassed to the bottom of my soul to agree with Werewolf on anything”
Does that mean I’m off your Christmas card list?
View all comments by werewolf
@FaRT: (just slipped out). . . Well, I guess they poll them, sort of, to see if they’ve wakened some
Then in the UK (at least cognizant) there’s this majority gov’t energy thing that runs the play and the French? The crap wine is their way of saying they’ve re-thought that Statue of Liberty thing 
I guess I see the point you are trying to make.
But don’t confuse neuro-linguistic conditioning (Ari Fleischer’s new hobby) with “poling” nnnnkaaay ;-?
Look at Prachai’s history. He’s one of fifty who call the shots here. To attempt to bankrupt one of The Fifty is tantamount to a treason. They literally are guaranteed to have their bad decisions moved over onto the tax base and their profitable ones moved on to the Caymans.
Happens back home as well.
Without a godfather, or some protection from an Amity company structure, this’s just “not a legitimate country to invest in,” I’ve heard. It all goes to property rights. Just look at what happens to half the “home builders” here.
Without a godfather, we have little or no legal standing.
View all comments by Thongsuk